A economia da Rússia no século 21: as dinâmicas da ascensão econômica e da relativa estagnação após a crise global de 2008

Rafael Henrique Dias Manzi

Resumo


O desempenho da economia da Rússia na primeira década após o esfacelamento político da União Soviética foi marcado por instabilidades macroeconômicas e por uma profunda recessão econômica. Esse cenário reverteu-se a partir do início do século 21 quando o país entrou em um novo ciclo de expansão econômica marcada por uma expressiva aceleração das taxas de crescimento do PIB. Contudo, a partir da década de 2010, a economia russa perdeu dinamismo e o processo de convergência de renda com os países desenvolvidos estagnou-se novamente. O principal objetivo do artigo é fazer uma análise do processo de
ascensão econômica da Rússia e do atual quadro de relativa estagnação a partir da eclosão da crise global de 2008. Os resultados apontam que o quadro de relativa estagnação da economia da Rússia não está ligado somente a fatores conjunturais, como a queda dos preços das commodities energéticas nos mercados internacionais e o acirramento das tensões geopolíticas com o mundo ocidental, mas refletem também, em grande medida, fragilidades domésticas da economia russa.


Palavras-chave


Rússia – economia internacional – boom das commodities – petróleo – geopolítica

Texto completo:

PDF

Referências


ACEMOGLU, Daron; JOHNSON, Simon; ROBINSON, James. Institutions as the fundamental cause of long-run growth. Washington: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004. (Working Paper 10481).

ASLUND, Anders. Russia The Arduous Transition to a Market Economy. In: ASLUND, Anders; DJANKOV, Simeon. The great rebirth. Lessons from the Victory of Capitalism over Communism. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Finance, 2014. p. 89-112.

CONNOLLY, Richard. In: KUHRT, Natasha; Feklyunina, Valentina (org.). Assessing Russia’s Power: A Report. 2017. London: King’s College London and Newcastle University, 2017. p. 21-24.

_______. Financial Constraints on the Modernization of the Russian Economy. Euroasian Geography and Economics, 2013, 52:3, p. 428-459.

CONNOLLY, Richard et al. Sanctions on Russia: Economic Effects and Political Rationales. London: Chatam House, 2015. Disponível em: https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/field/field_document/2015-06-30%20Sanctions%20Event%20Summary%20final.pdf Acesso: 20 ago. 2017.

CONNOLLY, Richard; HANSON, Philip. Import Substitution and Economic Sovereignty in Russia. London: Chatam House, 2016. (Research Paper).

CONNOLLY, Richard; SENDSTAD, Cecilie. Russia’s Role as an Arms Exporter. The Strategic and Economic Importance of Arms Exporters for Russia. London: Chatam House, 2017. (Research Paper)

DJANKOV, Simeon. Russia’s Economy under Putin: From Crony capitalism to State Capitalism. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2015. (Policy Brief, 15-18).

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT. Key aspects of Russia’s current foreign and security policy. Brussels: Directorate-General For External Policies, 2015. (Policy Briefing).

FEENSTRA, Robert; INKLAAR, Robert; TIMMER, Marcel. The Next Generation of the Penn World Table. American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-3182. Disponível em: www.ggdc.net/pwt Acesso: 10 dez. 2017.

FRIEDEN, Jeffry A. Capitalismo Global. História econômica e política do século XX. Rio de Janeiro: Jorge Zahar Editor, 2008.

GADDY, Clifford G.; ICKES, Barry W. Resource Rents and the Russian Economy. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 2013, 46:8, p. 559-583.

GOULD-DAVIES, Nigel; Russia’s Sovereign Globalization. Rise, Fall and Future. London: Chatam House, 2016. (Research Paper)

GURIEV, Sergei; TSYVINSKI, Aleh. Challenges Facing the Russian Economy after the Crisis. In: ASLUND, Anders; GURIEV, Sergei; KUCHINS, Andrew. Russia after the global economic crisis. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2010. p. 9-38.

HANSON, Philip. Russia’s Global Strategy: Is It Economically Sustainable? In: FERRARI, Aldo (org.). Putin’s Russia: really back? Milano: The Italian Institute for International Political Studies, 2016. p. 13-35.

INTERNATIONAL LABOUR ORGANIZATION. Statistics and databases. 2017. Disponível em: http://www.ilo.org/global/statistics-and-databases/lang--en/index.htm Acesso: 11 dez. 2017.

INTERNATINAL MONETARY FUND. World Economic Outlook Database. Disponível em: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/01/weodata/index.aspx Acesso: 15 ago. 2017.

_______. IMF Primary Commodity Prices. 2017. Disponível em: http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/index.aspx Acesso: 15 ago. 2017.

_______. World Economic Outlook. Slower Growth in Emerging Markets, a gradual Picked up in Advanced Economies. Washington: IMF, 2015.

JOFFE, Josef. The Myth of America’s Decline: Politics, economics and a half century of false prophecies. New York: W. W. Norton & Company Inc., 2014.

KUDRIN, Alexey; GURVICH, Evsey. A new growth model for the Russian economy. Russian Journal of Economic 1 (2015), pp. 30-54.

LETICHE, John M. Russia Moves into the Global Economy. New York: Routledge, 2007.

LUKYANOV, Fyodor. Putin’s Foreign Policy. The Quest to Restore Russia’s Rightful Place. Foreign Affairs, Vol. 95, No. 3, May/June 2016.

OFER, Gur. Soviet Economic Growth: 1928-1985. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 25, No. 4 (Dec., 1987), pp. 1767 – 1833.

ROUBINI, Nouriel; MIHN, Stephen. A economia das crises. Rio de Janeiro: Editora Intrínseca, 2010.

SABITOVA, Nadia; SHAVALEYEVA, Chulpan. Oil and Gas Revenues on the Russian Federation: Trends and Prospects. 22nd International Economic Conference – IECS, 2015.

SHARMA, Ruchir. The Rise and Fall of Nations: Forces of change in the post-crisis world. London: W. W. Norton & Company Ltd., 2016.

SHLEIFER, Andrei; TREISMAN, Daniel. A Normal Country: Russia After Communism. Journal of Economic Perspectives – Volume 19, Number 1 – Winter 2005, p. 151 – 174.

_______. Importer/Exporter TIV Tables. 2017. Disponível em: http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/page/values.php Acesso: 12 jun. 2017.

UNCTAD. Unctad Stat. 2017. Disponível em: http://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/TableViewer/tableView.aspx Acesso: 03 set. 2017.

UNITED STATES CENSUS BUREAU. International Database. 2016. Disponível em: https://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php Acesso: 13 mai. 2017.

VIOLA, Eduardo; LEIS, Héctor R. Sistema Internacional com Hegemonias das Democracias de Mercado. Desafios de Brasil e Argentina. Florianópolis: Editora Insular, 2007.

VIOLA, Eduardo, BASSO, Larissa. Brazilian energy-climate policy and politics towards low carbon development. Global Society, v. 29, n. 3, 2015.

VINHAS DE SOUZA, Lúcio. A Different Country. Russia’s Economic Resurgence. Brussels: Centre for European Policy Studies, 2007.

WORLD BANK. World Integrated Trade Solution. 2017. http://wits.worldbank.org/CountrySnapshot/en/RUS. Acesso: 30 mai. 2017.

WOLF, Martin. A reconstrução do Sistema Financeiro Global. São Paulo: Editora Campus, 2008.

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM. The Global Competitiveness Report 2016-2017. Geneva: World Economic Forum, 2017.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.21530/ci.v13n2.2018.768

Métricas do artigo

Carregando Métricas ...

Metrics powered by PLOS ALM

Apontamentos

  • Não há apontamentos.


Desenvolvido por:

Logomarca da Lepidus Tecnologia