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DLAUDLAQAtBwC0HADQcgDQcgBAywEALQcAtBwAtBwA0HIAQMsBAC0HAC0HALQcANByAEDLAUDLAQAtBwC0HAC0HADQcgBAywEALQcALQcAtBwA0HIAQMsBQMsBAC0HALQcANByANByAEDLAQAtBwC0HAC0HADQcgBAywFAywEALQcAtBwA0HIA0HIAQMsBAC0HALQcALQcANByAEDLAQAtBwAtBwC0HADQcgBAywFAywEALQcAtBwAtBwA0HIAQMsBAC0HAC0HALQcANByAEDLAUDLAQAtBwC0HADQcgDQcgBAywEALQcALQcAtBwA0HIAQMsBQMsBAC0HALQcANByANByAEDLAQAtBwC0HAC0HADQcgBAywEALQcALQcAtBwA0HIA0HIAQMsBAC0HALQcALQcANByAEDLAQAtBwAtBwC0HADQcgBAywFAywEALQcAtBwA0HIA0HIAQMsBAC0HAC0HALQcANByAEDLAUDLAQAtBwC0HADQcgDQcgBAywEALQcAtBwAtBwA0HIAQMsBAC0HAC0HALQcANByANByAEDLAQAtBwC0HAC0HADQcgBAywEALQcALQcAtBwA0HIAQMsBQMsBAC0HALQcANByANByAEDLAQAtBwAtBwC0HADQcgBAywFAywEALQcAtBwA0HIA0HIAQMsBAC0HALQcALQcANByAEDLAQAtBwAtBwC0HADQcgDQcgBAywEALQcAtBwAtBwA0HIAQMsBAC0HAC0HALQcANByAEDLAUDLAQAtBwC0HADQcgDQcgBAywEALQcALQcAtBwA0HIAQMsBQMsBAC0HALQcANByANByAEDLAQAtBwC0HAC0HADQcgBAywFAywEALQcAtBwA0HIA0HIAQMsBAC0HALQcALQcANByAEDLAQAtBwAtBwC0HADQcgBAywFAywEALQcAtBwAtBwA0HIAQMsBAC0HAC0HALQcANByAEDLAUDLAQAtBwC0HADQcgDQcgBAywEALQcAtBwAtBwA0HIAQMsBQMsBAC0HALQcANByANByAEDLAQAtBwC0HAC0HADQcgBAywEALQcALQcAtBwA0HIAQMsBQMsBAC0HALQcALQcANByAEDLAQAtBwAtBwC0HADQcgBAywFAywEALQcAtBwA0HIA0HIAQMsBAC0HALQcALQcANByAEDLAUDLAQAtBwC0HADQcgDQcgBAywEALQcAtBwAtBwA0HIAQMsBAC0HAC0HALQcANByAEDLAUDLAQAtBwC0HAC0HADQcgBAywEALQcALQcAtBwA0HIAQMsBQMsBAC0HALQcANByANByAEDLAQAtBwC0HAC0HADQcgBAywFAywEALQcAtBwA0HIA0HIAQMsBAC0HALQcALQcANByAEDLAQAtBwAtBwC0HADQcgDQcgBAywEALQcAtBwAtBwA0HIAQMsBAC0HAC0HALQcANByAEDLAUDLAQAtBwC0HADQcgDQcgBAywEALQcALQcAtBwA0HIAQMsBQMsBAC0HALQcANByANByAEDLAQAtBwC0HAC0HADQcgBAywEALQcALQcAtBwA0HIA0HIAQMsBAC0HALQcALQcANByAEDLAQAtBwAtBwC0HADQcgBAywFAywEALQcAtBwA0HIA0HIAQMsBAC0HAC0HALQcANByAEDLAUDLAQAtBwC0HADQcgDQcgBAywEALQcAtBwAtBwA0HIAQMsBAC0HAC0HALQcANByANByAEDLAQAtBwC0HAC0HADQcgBAywEALQcALQcAtBwA0HIAQMsBQMsBAC0HALQcANByANByAEDLAQAtBwAtBwC0HADQcgBAywFAywEALQcAtBwA0HIA0HIAQMsBAC0HALQcALQcANByAEDLAQAtBwAtBwC0HADQcgDQcgBAywEALQcAtBwAtBwA0HIAQMsBAC0HAC0HALQcANByAEDLAUDLAQAtBwC0HAC0HADQcgBAywEALQcALQcAtBwA0HIAQMsBQMsBAC0HALQcANByANByAEDLAQAtBwC0HAC0HADQcgBAywFAywEALQcAtBwA0HIA0HIAQMsBAC0HALQcALQcANByAEDLAQAtBwAtBwC0HADQcgBAywFAywEALQcAtBwAtBwA0HIAQMsBAC0HAC0HALQcANByAEDLAUDLAQAtBwC0HADQcgDQcgBAywEALQcAtBwAtBwA0HIAQMsBQMsBAC0HALQcANByANByAEDLAQAtBwC0HAC0HADQcgBAywEALQcALQcAtBwA0HIAQMsBQMsBAC0HALQcALQcANByAEDLAQAtBwAtBwC0HADQcgBAywFAywEALQcAtBwA0HIA0HIAQMsBAC0HALQcALQcANByAEDLAUDLAQAtBwC0HADQcgDQcgBAywEALQcAtBwAtBwA0HIAQMsBAC0HAC0HALQcANByAEDLAUDLAQAtBwC0HAC0HADQcgBAywEALQcALQcAtBwA0HIAQMsBQMsBAC0HALQcANByANByAEDLAQAtBwAtBwC0HADQcgBAywFAywEALQcAtBwA0HIA0HIAQMsBAC0HALQcALQcANByAEDLAQAtBwAtBwC0HADQcgDQcgBAywEALQcAtBwAtBwA0HIAQMsBAC0HAC0HALQcANByAEDLAUDLAQAtBwC0HADQcgDQcgBAywEALQcALQcAtBwA0HIAQMsBQMsBAC0HALQcANByANByAEDLAQAtBwC0HAC0HADQcgBAywEALQcALQcAtBwA0HIA0HIAQMsBAC0HALQcALQcANByAEDLAQAtBwAtBwC0HADQcgBAywFAywEALQcAtBwA0HIA0HIAQMsBAC0HAC0HALQcANByAEDLAUDLAQAtBwC0HADQcgDQcgBAywEALQcAtBwAtBwA0HIAQMsBAC0HAC0HALQcANByANByAEDLAQAtBwC0HAC0HADQcgBAywEALQcALQcAtBwA0HIAQMsBQMsBAC0HALQcANByANByAEDLAQAtBwAtBwC0HADQcgBAywFAywEALQcAtBwA0HIA0HIAYBtVV77ll7OzLMsqUfTjjz+GYeilBIAXERZFscLNPn/6NB6P/9y1j6J3797JOQC8iFWOsd8OeRAEszz/8OHDap8JAICyW34n5HIOAK+p5Q+GXM4B4HW0/ImQ3+T86urKawoA29jyZ0MOAGxvy7MsWyTklShqNBpeUwDYxv3yRULuyjQAKN9Cc8U0Go1KFM3yfOWQj4bD8/PzBR/T/v5+p9v13gDAIhadK6Yoig8fPjyY80VC3u/3l3pYvV5PzgFgEYseYw/D8N27d5UoWjbkQRAsG/L5Ta4nE28PAKyt5Q/mfKNj5Pls5u0BgHW2/Cbn9UajWq3WGw0nuwHAi1t6nbQwDH/66ScvHAC8yv1yAEDLAYB1qn7PjfM8T5MkSZLr6+tarRbHsQvJAOAVtHze78vx+Pbl5tPpdD7Pq5wDwDa2/HoyGQ6HaZpOp9Mnfq3f72s5AGxLy/M8Hw2HSZpOllnJNE2Sdhx7ZQHgZVpeFMXFaJQkSZZlC07vekdyr+VPz+X+IEuuAcCC/pyPPcuy4devd4bAV1OJovfv39/5fPDYXO6PbcEsNACwaMtns9nHjx+XOor+rJ9/+UWJAaAclbWHPAiCi9HIKwsAJbV8E8uRJUnilQWAklq+2gluT8uyzCsLACW1vFqtrn2jRVFYfRwAylFtt9vD4XDt202SZP/g4MEfpUkyHo/HWRYEQdxux3Fcq9e9EwCwmnA8Hn/6+HHt2603Gg8ujZomydnZ2f3vt1qtOI7bcRxFkXcFAJbYL282m5vY7oPnxud5/mDIgyAYj8fj8bjf71ei6E2rFcfxm3bbhW0A8HzL5/vQa78sLQiCLMvufFD4vd9/9lazPE+SZH4mfLVabbfb8d7ehj5wAMDfpOVxuz3YQMuTi4s7Db4cj5fawnQ6HQ6H8+H8eqNhcB0AHml5HA8Gg7VvOk3Tw17v5suiKL5ngtjJ1dXg6mowGIRh2Gw24zje63QchAeAahAEtXo9DMNNXGh+27omgyuK4v7gupXZANjplgdB0Gw2x0seAH9W5dsz0jcxGdydwfW3R0dG1gHYNZX5P/EG9msP9vdvf7npyeCm0+mnjx8XOb0OAP6GLV/vMep6o3FycnJ7m9eTyaaP4c8Nh8PRBqa+AYCt9ecx9iiKKlH0PeemPT10XeZqKxPTxwKwgy0PguBNq7VscRc/pTxJ09Ke0tjKLgDsZsvjOF6w5fNLvTvd7uLzrW5iLprHRJWK9xWAXWx5O46fOMz+PVOwlbwEauz6NAB2s+VBEPz4j3+cnp7efLmuqdGTi4syn5JrzQHY3ZbX6vVf/vnP68kkn81qtdq6lixLSxwsr0SRldYA2N2W3xS9tr47KIpiOp2W9nzetFreVAB2ysZPE7sscac8MFgOgJavXZlXlgdB8Kbd9qYCoOXrVOZgebVatXIaAFq+TnmelzN161zbTjkAu6e60a1fX1+X+WTivb1HH8lkks9mL/hCW8ANgFfZ8hfvZVEUX8/Pz8/Pyzw88KAwDPf39/9nf98oAACvqeWNRqO0Z1K/d19pkpydnW3JC10UxWAwGAwGR0dHZrMBYI02O14ehmG1WtKuf3xvsPw/W7mW+ZcvX/zZAfBqWh4Ewf+9e1fONd937uV6MvmeJVw3uoOeWckNgFfU8iAI3h4dnZycdLvdze2jh2FYq9dvf6e/lTvlc4M//vCXB8C6lHQAvFavH/Z6h71eEARpkiRJcjker3G/+f5ZbyWfQr+UbX5sAGj589pxPD/5qyiKi9EoSZIsy77zPHNTtwKg5S8gDMNOt9vpdoMgyPN8NBwmaTq5ulphU3udjvcSAC1/SVEU7R8c7B8cBEGQZVlycZGm6YILrJm6FQAt3y7NZrPZbB72ekVRXKbps4Prx8fH3kgAtHwbhWF4M7ie5/n8pLk7g+u9Xu/OGewAoOXbKIqim8H1+eTqtVotiiJvIQBa/vrU6vWatw4AgiAoZ64YAEDLAQAtBwAtBwC0HADQcgBAywFAywEALQcAtBwAtBwA0HIAQMsBAC0HAC0HALQcANByAGCHW76/v7+1j63dbvvLA0DLn7HX6WztY/vh8NBfHgBa/owwDFut1hY+sFarFYahvzwAtPx5/3t8HMfxtoX87dGRPzsA1rn7WhTF3/sZFkVxMRqdn5+/7MPY39/f63TskQOwdv8P1YLiOVo9aIsAAAAASUVORK5CYII=)
Rev. Carta Inter., Belo Horizonte, v. 13, n. 2, 2018, p. 31-55
38 O pensamento geoestratégico e os documentos estratégicos dos Estados Unidos no pós Guerra Fria
Para isso, Brzezinski propõe que os EUA devem atuar como o promotor e
garantidor de um renovado “Ocidente Ampliado” (Larger West), envolvendo a
Turquia e a Rússia, de forma gradual, por meio de um processo de democratização
e eventualmente aderindo às normas do “Ocidente”. Esse objetivo de longo prazo
poderia ser alcançado no segundo quarto do século XXI. A Turquia se destacaria
por sua influência histórica na área do antigo Império Otomano, por atuar como
uma ponte de acesso da Europa ao Mar Cáspio e à Ásia Central (via aliança com
Geórgia e Azerbaijão), que são áreas disputadas com a Rússia, e por ter sido em
parte já incorporada ao Ocidente através da OTAN. A relevância da Rússia se
deve à sua posição geográfica central e transcontinental na Eurásia, e por ter em
sua orientação geoestratégica a retomada do status de antigo império, que busca
influência sobre a Ásia Central e sobre parte da Europa dividida. Assim, nessa
tarefa, a liderança dos EUA na OTAN seria imprescindível, assim como trabalhar
por uma Europa unida, fomentando a cooperação entre seus atores chave.
Outro tabuleiro seria o “Oriente Complexo”, na região Ásia-Pacífico, onde
os EUA deveriam atuar como um promotor do equilíbrio regional de “um novo
oriente estável e cooperativo”. Para ele, por seu peso econômico e demográfico
frente a uma Europa declinante, essa região é crucial para a estabilidade global.
No entanto, apresenta enorme potencial de eclodir um conflito local que pode
arrastar os EUA e levar a uma guerra maior. Isso se deve às disputas pelo posto
de maior potência regional, combinado com ressentimentos, desconfianças,
contenciosos e conflitos históricos, envolvendo também aliados estratégicos dos
EUA (BRZEZINSKI, 2012a, p.157-158). Para Brzezinski, as ambições chinesas
se tornam cada vez mais claras, assentadas em assertividade nacionalista,
modernização nacional e paciência histórica, que despertam medo e rivalidades
históricas com Japão e Índia, por exemplo. Assim, os EUA deveriam ajudar
os países a evitar uma batalha pelo domínio da região, mediando conflitos e
promovendo o equilíbrio entre rivais. Mas alerta que os EUA não podem mais
impor um equilíbrio de poder à região (BRZEZINSKI, 2012a, p.131, 161). Mas,
para ele, embora seja apontada frequentemente como a sucessora dos EUA, a
China não estaria preparada, disposta ou interessada em assumir o papel global
dos EUA. Pelo contrário, busca maior influência, de forma paciente, cautelosa e
não conflitante, entendendo que um rápido declínio dos EUA levaria a uma crise
global que não a interessaria, já que o país tira proveito da ordem promovida
pelos EUA sem incorrer nos seus custos. Até porque sua geografia possibilita um