
Lucas Louzada Silva; Arthur Roberto Capella Giannattasio
Rev. Carta Inter., Belo Horizonte, v. 20, n. 1, e1548, 2025
17-23
the beginning of the China threat theories to the end of 1992.6 The explanation
would be “a confluence of factors” (Deng 2008, 104) whereby Deng Xiaoping’s
“Southern Tour” led to the economic rise of a unified China — which began
to be feared, and to the halt of a prognostic of a “China collapse”. As another
landmark for the factors, Deng (2008) cites the passing, in February of that
year, of the Law of the People’s Republic of China on the Territorial Sea and the
Contiguous Zone of 1992, cornerstone in Chinese legal address of its claims to
Nanhai Zhudao (Deng 2008, 105).
Khalid Al-Rodhan (2007) classifies the claims from U.S journalists, strategic
thinkers, and scholars as “speculative at best” (Al-Rhodan 2007, 63), drawing
attention to the possibility of the “China threat” being a self-fulfilling prophecy,
as its thesis influences policy makers in Washington to make decisions that could
lead to increasing tensions.
Andrej Krickovic and Chang Zhang (2020, 221) offer a different analysis of the
Chinese rise through the lenses of status-seeking theory and a comparison with
Russia, standing against the idea that the country’s ascent will lead inevitably
to conflict. The authors argue that Russia’s aggressiveness can be explained
by the idea of a declining power, losing prestige and position in international
politics. China, on the other side, would have much to lose in a confrontational
stance against the United States, and, therefore, would be more cautious and
diplomatic to solve tensions.
Regarding Chinese activities in the SCS, there is a literature — mainly
authored by Western scholars — analyzing China’s intentions and strategies in
the region and using terms as “assertive” (Fravel 2011; Holmes and Yoshihara
2009) to refer to the country’s actions in the SCS disputes and by picturing it
as a cornerstone of U.S.-China’s rivalry in the 21st century (Buzsinksy 2012).
However, Chinese actions concerning its claims over the SCS do not seem to
meet these “China threat theories”. Rather, it seems that the authors who defend
this idea do not try to take the legal arguments of the country seriously and
6 The first one is attributed to an August 1990 article by a professor at Japan’s National Defense Academy and
was addressed in a Beijing Review article (Deng 2008, 104) from 1997. Another is traced back to Xu Xin,
former president of the China Institute for International Strategic Studies and former deputy chief of the
People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Xu was at a symposium hosted by Heritage Foundation, in Washington, DC
on August 25, 1992 when a U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense alleged China was responsible for sparking
an arms race in the Asia-Pacific region, with the notion of “threat” being amplified in the following month
by the former U.S. ambassador to China, James Lilley, in Hong Kong, where he criticized China’s military
expansion (Deng 2008, 104).